Fantasy Baseball Questions for 2005

For the past few years, Fantasy Drafts have been pretty easy to do if you had the first pick. Choice: Alex Rodriguez. Well after last year’s battles in Yankee Stadium, the first choice is more of an open field. Since I only play in Sabremetric leagues, the stats we are working with are OBP, SLG, Runs, RBI’s.
1. Who would your choice be for first pick in 2005?

The last few seasons the first pitcher taken has been Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. Well after Johan Santana’s glorious year (I had him on all my fantasy teams in 2004, so yes, glorious is the word) things might have finally changed.
2. Who would your choice be for first pitcher chosen in 2005? (Saber categories of Wins, ERA, WHIP use in determining your choice)

In my 10 years of playing fantasy baseball, the one postion that creates the most havoc in drafts is closers. It seems like the top 4 go at a normal rate, but then someone will reach for the next closer and boom there is a run and if you are waiting to pick, you might get left without a quality reliever.
3. Since Eric Gagne will most likely be the first choice in most drafts, what closer would you choose after him? (Use Saves, ERA, WHIP in determining your choice)

Every year there are surprises on the plus and minus side.
4. Which top 50 draftee will falter the most?
5. Which player not ranked in the Top 150 will have the best year?
(If you are asking, where is this Top 50 or Top 150 list, go to one of the internet sites or fantasy magazines or just guess on it.)

1. Albert Pujols
2. Johan Santana
3. Joe Nathan
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Richard Hidalgo

In a sabremetric league, Pujols has only trailed Bonds the past couple of seasons and I suspect Bonds will finally drop behind him in 2005. Considering the ages of Johnson and Schilling, plus Prior’s question marks, Santana’s my guy, though I can’t imagine him duplicating his post May 2005. With strikeout’s not in the stat margin, I choose Nathan, as Lidge won’t get as many chances to save games in 2005 and I suspect the Twins will be in a ton of close ones.
Beltre had his career year and while he has some great table setters in front of him, SAFECO field will mute some of this. I think PECOTA is pretty close to right on him for 2005. Hildago had his career year in 2003, but hitting in Arlington with the lineup surrounding him will make his stats shine.

I would be interested to get your 5 answers to these questions. Also, we will have a free fantasy baseball league through Yahoo, so be on the lookout for info on that in the next few days.